Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Division Series Predictions

I have no emotional ties to any of the teams in the playoffs, so from a purely statistical standpoint... 

Rockies vs. Phillies -- The Phillies had the best offense, but the Rockies were slightly better overall. Their pitching was much better despite playing at Coors Field. Turn it around and you can say that Philly's hitting was better even though they did not play at Coors Field. With teams like these, you must consider home park effects. Colorado score 1.11 more runs per game at home than on the road. Philly scored 0.1. Colorado surrendered 0.36 more runs per game at home than on the road, and Philly gaved up 0.26 more run per game at home. Seems like the pitching-sucks-because-we're-at-home angle cancels out. The hitting does not. So you gotta say big advantage to Philadelphia.
Prediction: Philadelphia in 3

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs -- Obviously Arizona was incredibly lucky this season. They are not a good team. Good teams outscore their opponents. Both teams pitch very well (#1 and #2 in ERA+ in the NL) but neither is partciularly good at swinging the bat (or taking a pitch for that matter.) Chicago is better though. Low scoring games tend to be more random though, so this series will be closer than it should be.
Prediction: Chicago in 4

Red Sox vs. Angels -- Boston is superior in every way. The Angels are a good team, don't get me wrong. They are notorious for their lack of power and plate discipline, but still managed a 105 OPS+ as a team. Their pitching is viewed as their strength, and it's good too with a 103 ERA+. Good, but they should be crushed by Boston.
Prediction: Boston in 4

Yankees vs. Indians -- The Yankees offense is amazing, but their pitching is so-so at best. Cleveland is solid on both offense and defense. I don't think they can shut down the Yankees offense, I don't care if they do have the two best pitchers in the league. This is going to be a wild series, as any series with the Yankees would be.
Prediction: Indians in 5

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