Karma's Bitch: The Denver Broncos

Twenty-five years ago, football fans were eagerly awaiting the NFL draft. There wasn't the ESPN/Mel Kiper hype that we have today, but none was needed that year. John Elway headed up the greatest quarterback class the NFL has ever seen. To say that Elway was highly regarded is an understatement. He had ideal size for an NFL quarterback with mythic arm strength. He was a fantastic overall athlete who also happened to be incredibly smart (earned a degree in economics while at Stanford.) The Baltimore Colts had the #1 pick in the draft and needed a quarterback. One problem: Elway refused to play for Baltimore. He threatened to play baseball instead if Baltimore drafted him. So Denver stepped in and traded for the rights to Elway. A year later, Mayflower trucks swooped in during the middle of the night moved the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis. Elway's selfish power play did not directly cause the Colts to move, the city of Baltimore had more to do with that, but nonetheless: Elway brought some bad, bad karma with him to Denver.

Elway's success in Denver is misunderstood today. People forget that there was a time when people talked about Elway's failures more than his successes. After 14 years in the league, he had plenty of individual accolades, but three horrible losses (and individual performances) in the Super Bowl. It was almost the perfect kind of karmic retribution. Sure you make the deal with the devil to get the great prize (Elway), but it can't bring you happiness (championship.) Then a karma curveball was thrown.

Mike Shananhan became the head coach of Denver. He had been mightily wronged by Raiders owner Al Davis, and now he was head coach in the same division as the Raiders. This virtually guaranteed success for Denver, and they went on to win back-to-back Super Bowls in Elway's last two seasons.

Denver continued to have success after Elway retired. However, after last season they abruptly Shanahan for no good reason. It was time for karma to finish off Denver for the sins it committed years before. Enter Josh McDaniel, hot shot new coach for Denver. Not satisfied with a young, Pro Bowl quarterback (Jay Cutler) that "the other guy" had drafted, McDaniel tries to trade that QB for a QB (Matt Cassel) that he coached last year as offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Here is where karma starts stepping in. The trade falls through, and instead the Patriots trade Cassel for way less than most thought he would command. Cutler finds out. First the Broncos deny everything. Then after meeting with Cutler over the phone and in person, they tell him to his face that they would be willing to trade. Now Cutler is demanding to be traded. It's almost too good to be true.

Reality Check: SF 49ers

Yesterday I was driving home from Southern California, after spending the holidays with family. My wife was giving me updates on the Miami-New York game, and I was thrilled that the Dolphins won. Today I am back in the Bay Area and all anybody is talking about is Mike Singletary and the 49ers. In truth this has been going on for the last month, but I can take no more.

Now I can't really blame them. The 49ers seemed awful before Singletary took over, with a 2-5 record. A ten loss season looked like it was on the way. They finished 5-4 under Singletary, and now have given him a new contract. Many (including myself) were surprised when Singletary was named interim head coach. We weren't suprised that Mike Nolan was fired -- he should have been fired after last season because he behaved childishly and subsequently ruined the career of Alex Smith. Now the surprise was Singletary being named instead of Mike Martz. After all, Martz had coached both St. Louis (with great success) and Detroit (not so much.) Now with Singletary being given the reigns for next year, it is a foregone conclusion that Martz will be run out of town so new O-coordinator can be brought in to install a "power running game." Everyone in the Bay Area is giddy about all this -- but they won't be so happy 365 days from now. Let's take a look inside the numbers to see why.

Under Nolan, the 49ers were 2-5. As much as I disliked Nolan, that 2-5 mark was mostly a result of their schedule. The 5 losses were against teams with a combined 0.618 winning percentage. Three of the five teams made the playoffs, and the other two just missed. All five of those teams ranked in the 7 in the league in offense. Not surprisingly, the 49ers surrendered 339 yards per game. Their offense produced nearly 300 yards per game playing against defenses that were on average ranked 17th in the league -- right in the middle.

Under Singletary, the 49ers were 5-4. Again much of this was the product of their schedule. Their opponents had a combined winning percentage of 0.430. None of the teams that they beat made the playoffs. Actually they only played two playoff teams, and they lost to both. They played average offenses (19th ranked on average) and average defenses (18th ranked on average.) They produced 320 yards per game and gave up 315 yards per game. That is about a 20 yard swing on both offense and defense, but this is easily explained by their opponents. They were -6 turnovers under Nolan and -9 under Singletary.

In summary, it is hard to argue that Singletary made much of a difference. If Nolan had stayed on as head coach, the 49ers would have probably had similar "success". This is not a good reason to get excited about Singletary and offer him a multi-year contract. Worse, by making Singletary the permanent head coach, you guarantee that Mike Martz will be gone. Why is that a big deal? Keep reading.

The 49ers had a terrible passing offense last year, but this year they were ranked 13th in the NFL. That's not great, but it's a big improvement. Now maybe that is because of the opponents they played, but most of the really bad teams they played were division foes who were also very bad last year as well. So maybe some of that improvement is because of Mike Martz. Indeed, Martz's game planning ability was even more on display late in the season. He arguably exposed huge weaknesses in several defenses: Arizona, Dallas, and especially the New York Jets.

After beating the 49ers in week 10, the Arizona Cardinals went 3-4 the rest of the way. Before that game, they were giving up 23 points per game. Not great, but good enough when you have a top give offense. After that game, they gave up 31 points game. Martz's offense put up 275 yards passing against the Jets. After that game, the Jets faced the likes of JP Losman, Seneca Wallace, and of course Chad Pennington. The Jets defense was great against Losman, but Wallace and Pennington both posted 100+ QB Ratings against the Jets. In the previous 13 games, the Jets allowed a 100+ QB rating only three times (Philip Rivers, Matt Cassel, and Tyler Thigpen.)

You can argue that Singletary deserves credit for benching JT O'Sullivan and starting Shaun Hill. However, most of the credit for the 49ers "turnaround" goes to an improved offense engineered by Mike Martz. Next year, Martz will be gone. Instead we will see an offense that is more similar to what Nolan preferred last year, and we all saw how that turned out.

How 'Bout Them 'Fins!

This is the first of two NFL posts. This is the happy one. My childhood team, the Miami Dolphins, amazingly made the playoffs yesterday by beating the New York Jets. They went from 1-15 last year to 11-5 and this year, thus providing hope for Detroit Lions fans everywhere... Admittedly I did not get to watch too much Dolphin football this year (or last year for that matter) because I am in the Bay Area. Based on what I saw and what I have read over the last two years, there are a couple of major reasons for the turn around.

1.) Health. Last year Miami was plagued with injuries. Ronnie Brown started the year off on fire, making huge plays in both the running and passing game. I always joked that Brown would rack up 100 yards on the ground in the first half, while the game was close, and then another 100 yards through the air in the second half when Miami was trying to come back. It's not just Brown. The D-line was healthy all year. The O-line only had one missed game combined. The secondary is obviously the weak link of the defense, but at least there were a lot less games missed this year than last.

2.) Parcells and Sparano. The new brain trust certainly re-built the team beautifully. That healthy D-line? All new. The O-line returned several starters from last year, but was certainly improved by drafting Jake Long. Certainly the addition of Chad Pennington helped -- a lot. But don't forget about other subtle improvements like trading for Anthony Fasano.

3.) Brett Favre. I'm not putting him here because of the three picks he threw in the season finale against Miami, but because of his offseason drama. If Favre would have never retired, he would have stayed at Green Bay this year. I don't want to even try to speculate how that would have turned out -- Green Bay was bad this year because their defense could not stop the run -- but I know how it would have affected Miami. Favre in Green Bay, means no Favre in New York, and that means no Chad Pennington in Miami. Pennington is no messiah, but he was good. He posted a 97.4 QB rating! That was second in the NFL! He was obviously a huge improvement over the mess that Miami had last year. Here's a few more stats for you: Miami was 5th in offense in the AFC, 6th in run offense, 5th in pass offense, and had the fewest turnovers in the AFC. Thanks Favre!

With all of that being said, I shoudl expect Miami to roll to the Super Bowl, right? Well maybe not. I do think Miami has a good chance against Baltimore this weekend. Miami was 5th against the run, but only 12th against the pass in the AFC. Baltimore was only 13th in passing, and with Miami at home ... they have a chance! The early line has Baltimore as a 4.5 point favorite, so obviously some smart folks think Miami's fantastic run is about to end. Either way, it's been a great season for Miami.

The Wrong Color of Green

So apparently the folks in Green Bay didn't listen to me about the best way to resolve the Brett Favre situation. It's not like they are going to get a first or second round pick now, for the simple reason that Jets stink. Whatever. I'm glad we've still got Lilly. Anyways...

I am not happy about Favre playing for the Jets. Of course, I think I know Green Bay's strategy here. They know that Favre will have to play against New England twice a year for as long as he stays unretired. They know that Belichick is an evil genius who likes nothing better than to cause his opponent's mind to implode.

Last year we learned about another little fetish of Belichick: football video. Think of all of the video of Favre that the Packers have accumulated. Think of all of the other goodies that might be laying around, like Rorscach test results, etc. Now imagine all of that in the hands of Belichick... Ted Thompson may just get the last laugh.

Update: Looks like trickle down economics works after all as Miami has signed Jets castoff Chad Pennington.

Farrv-ruuh

Oh the drama in the Green Bay... So Brett Favre wants to play again next year. Green Bay does not want him to play. They are all too happy to move on and start the Aaron Rodgers era. Is Green Bay being foolish? Is Favre just going to embarrass himself trying to come out of retirement? Let's look at some facts.

Favre had a 95.7 passer rating last year. That placed him #2 in the NFC, behind Tony Romo. He was also #2 touchdown passes (28) and #3 in passing yards (4155.) So it sure seems like Favre is still playing at not just a "good" level, but an elite level. But...
In the two previous seasons, Favre had passer ratings of 70.9 and 72.7. He threw 9 more interceptions than touchdown passes during those two years. This is definitely below average for an NFL quarterback, especially for a QB in a passer-stat friendly system like they run in Green Bay.

So what Favre will show up in 2008? Everybody wants to villify Green Bay for disrespecting one the most beloved players in NFL history. I wonder what John Madden would say about it...

I digress... Anyways, you can't just say the Packers are being crazy jerks. There are some good reasons to think that Favre may not play well this season: past performance and age. Clearly they must think highly of Aaron Rodgers. Personally, I've heard a lot of sound bites from this guy, and he seems like a real jerk. But so what? He may still be a good QB, though he seems more similar to Pac-10 QBs like Cade McNown or at his best a Matt Leinart as opposed to a Carson Palmer.

So what should the Packers do? Trade Favre. However, they must trade him to a team they won't play and preferably to a team in the AFC. They need to get something back for him that will appease the fans. Luckily for the Packers, I've got the solution. They need to trade Favre for Lilly:


Who would not be happy about getting Lilly? Miami was terrible last year, so it is kind of a punishment for Favre for allowing his indecisiveness cause such problems. There is no chance that they would have to face Favre next year as well. For Miami, well losing Lilly would hurt. However, Favre would be a big upgrade. If things don't go well ... well it will still be better than last year, right? It would certainly get fans excited and at the games. It is win-win.

NFL Rumors

From an this article on Y! Sports:

"Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones will feel compelled to make a big splash this offseason. The most popular speculation is he'll trade his two first-round picks and running back Marion Barber (a restricted free agent) to the Miami Dolphins for the No. 1-overall selection in the NFL Draft. Jones then could select Arkansas running back Darren McFadden."

Whoa! I like that rumor. I know Miami needs D, but I think Glen Dorsey is way-overrated. He is the logical #1 pick for Miami, so I would love to see them deal the pick. Getting two #1's would be great. I love Marion Barber as well, even though Ronnie Brown looked like the best back in football last year before he got hurt. Seriously the guy would put 100 yards on the ground in the first half of games. Then in the second half, with Miami down by double digits (because they had no defense to speak of) he would rack up another 100 yards receiving. If nothing else, Marion Barber is an awesome insurance policy, and he has ties with new Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano.

The Dolphins offense looked ok before injuries killed them. Oh and before trading Chris Chambers. QB continues to be a problem, but from that same article..."

"Eagles could trade McNabb"

How Much for that Moss?

This article on ESPN rightly wonders how New England should be willing to pay to keep Moss. They make some good points, namely that it will cost the Pats a lot to sign him to a multi-year deal and that he might be disgruntled and play poorly if they resort to using the Franchise tag on him for all of next year. Then they make some stupid points.

Like why expect New England to re-sign Moss when they didn't re-sign Deion Branch who played big in two Super Bowls. After all, New England lost the Super Bowl with Moss. They also try to claim that New England's all-pass attack was foolish because they lost to New York. They even try to use statistics to justify this by pointing that starting late in the third quarter, New England only average 3.8 yards per pass.

Ah, but when dumb people start quoting statistics, they get themselves in trouble. They don't mention that New England only average 2.8 yards per rush. I mean, if passing the ball is not working, then you should run the ball more, right? Oh if that stinks too ... well I guess you could just punt on first down?

Back to Moss, he was the key to New England becoming the most productive offense in the history of the game. They would be above average without him, but they are the best in the league with him. I am no expert on NFL economics, so I can't say what he is worth. All I know is that as a Dolphins fan, I can just dream that New England lets him go.

Finally, one last parting shot on the Super Bowl. It would be dumb for such a successful team to try to "fix" non-existent problems based on the outcome of one game. New York did what many team tried to do against New England: get pressure on Brady. That is the only way to neutralize a great passing game. This has been common knowledge for decades. It's the Lawrence Taylor effect. So if for some reason New England wanted to "fix" something, then they should look at their O-line and in particular Matt Light. I think Light is fine. He is undersized slightly for an LT. He is going to the Pro Bowl this year for the first time, but that is largely because of New England's success. That's the place to look for "fixes" though, not at WR.

NFL Playoffs

I was listening to sports radio (stupid me) and heard the following:

Caller: "Everyone wants San Diego to beat New England this weekend."

Host: "That is ridiculous. That is like saying that everyone wants Tiger Woods to miss the cut at the Masters. No. Everybody wants Tiger Woods to lose by double-bogeying the 18th hole in the final round of The Masters. Tom Brady is the Tiger Woods of the NFL."

Huh? First off, people hate Tiger? That is news to me. I didn't think anybody rooted against Tiger. Maybe some folks have a different favorite golfer, and root for that golfer over Tiger. I have always liked Phil Mickelson because he's a lefty, and I golf left handed. I like Mike Weir for the same reason! But who hates Tiger Woods? Fuzzy Zoeller maybe?

Next, Tom Brady is the Tiger Woods of the NFL? Now this is just stupid. Tiger is the most talented golfer out there, and nobody could claim that Tom Brady is the most talented quarterback, and certainly not the most talented football player.

Quick question... What is the difference between last year's Patriots and this year's Patriots? Is it A.) Tom Brady B.) Bill Bellichick C.) Randy Moss D.) Electronic Surveillance ... Alright I know, trick question. Anyways, it is obviously Randy Moss. Oh, and a whole lot of points and wins to go along with Randy Moss. If I would have had a vote for NFL MVP it would have gone to Moss.

Don't get me wrong, I wish the Dolphins had Tom Brady at QB! But I just don't see him as Tiger Woods. Then again I was never a big Joe Montana fan either, and Montana is clearly the QB that Brady is most similar to.

I was disappointed that Indianapolis and Dallas both lost. They were clearly the two teams with the best chance of beating New England. I don't know how anyone can see an extremely wounded San Diego can go into Foxboro and come out with a win... Green Bay and New York could actually be a pretty close game, but San Diego would be favored against either of them. Remember, the NFC has been a lot weaker than the AFC for many years now, kind of like the AL vs. the NL in MLB or the Western conference vs. the Eastern conference in the NBA...

This is the Team We Want to Move to the South Bay?

Clearly one of these guys must go.

Nolan won't go because it would "send the wrong message" to the team.

Smith won't go because it will kill them with the salary cap.

So they will both be back and the Niners will be very bad ... again.

Disappointing Dolphins

Yesterday's news that Nick Saban had left Miami for Alabama was not surprising. It was yet another disappointment in a season of the for Miami. The Dolphins finished so strong last season that I really thought they would be a playoff team this season. When they traded for Daunte Culpepper, I thought they could go deep in the playoffs, depending on how well Daunte had recovered from knee surgery.

Then reality struck. Daunte was nowhere near ready. The offense struggled because of his knee problems, but that wasn't all there was to blame. Losing offensive coordinator Scott Linehan really hurt too. Joey Harrington at QB made the Dolphins passing game roughly equivalent to what it had been at the end of last season, except that Chris Chambers was now missing. I have no idea what happened to him. He looked like he could be the best receiver in the game at the end of last season and that was with nobody throwing to him. Harrington was no worse than Gus Frerotte. Frerotte's QB rating last season was 71.9 while Harrington's rating this season 68.2. Not a huge difference. One can only imagine that if Chambers was playing at anywhere near the level he had played at in 2005 that Harrington's rating would have certainly been higher.

The only good news was that the defense stayed solid. It was another good year for veterans Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. I think Taylor has a good shot at NFL Defensive Player of the Year, especially since his top competitor, Shawn Merriman, has a steroid cloud hanging over his head. Of course now Taylor is talking about retiring... Having your coach quit probably isn't going to help convince him to stay.

As for Saban going to Alabama... It sucks he has to go to an SEC team! He's a good coach. He's not really getting any more money there, I think he just wanted an easier job. The NFL was too much for him. So it's probably a good thing for Miami in the long run. An offensive minded coach is really needed in Miami. I think Culpepper can still come back as can Chambers. Ronnie Brown definitely progressed this year, and could blow up with a good passing game around him.