How 'Bout Them 'Fins!

This is the first of two NFL posts. This is the happy one. My childhood team, the Miami Dolphins, amazingly made the playoffs yesterday by beating the New York Jets. They went from 1-15 last year to 11-5 and this year, thus providing hope for Detroit Lions fans everywhere... Admittedly I did not get to watch too much Dolphin football this year (or last year for that matter) because I am in the Bay Area. Based on what I saw and what I have read over the last two years, there are a couple of major reasons for the turn around.

1.) Health. Last year Miami was plagued with injuries. Ronnie Brown started the year off on fire, making huge plays in both the running and passing game. I always joked that Brown would rack up 100 yards on the ground in the first half, while the game was close, and then another 100 yards through the air in the second half when Miami was trying to come back. It's not just Brown. The D-line was healthy all year. The O-line only had one missed game combined. The secondary is obviously the weak link of the defense, but at least there were a lot less games missed this year than last.

2.) Parcells and Sparano. The new brain trust certainly re-built the team beautifully. That healthy D-line? All new. The O-line returned several starters from last year, but was certainly improved by drafting Jake Long. Certainly the addition of Chad Pennington helped -- a lot. But don't forget about other subtle improvements like trading for Anthony Fasano.

3.) Brett Favre. I'm not putting him here because of the three picks he threw in the season finale against Miami, but because of his offseason drama. If Favre would have never retired, he would have stayed at Green Bay this year. I don't want to even try to speculate how that would have turned out -- Green Bay was bad this year because their defense could not stop the run -- but I know how it would have affected Miami. Favre in Green Bay, means no Favre in New York, and that means no Chad Pennington in Miami. Pennington is no messiah, but he was good. He posted a 97.4 QB rating! That was second in the NFL! He was obviously a huge improvement over the mess that Miami had last year. Here's a few more stats for you: Miami was 5th in offense in the AFC, 6th in run offense, 5th in pass offense, and had the fewest turnovers in the AFC. Thanks Favre!

With all of that being said, I shoudl expect Miami to roll to the Super Bowl, right? Well maybe not. I do think Miami has a good chance against Baltimore this weekend. Miami was 5th against the run, but only 12th against the pass in the AFC. Baltimore was only 13th in passing, and with Miami at home ... they have a chance! The early line has Baltimore as a 4.5 point favorite, so obviously some smart folks think Miami's fantastic run is about to end. Either way, it's been a great season for Miami.

The Wrong Color of Green

So apparently the folks in Green Bay didn't listen to me about the best way to resolve the Brett Favre situation. It's not like they are going to get a first or second round pick now, for the simple reason that Jets stink. Whatever. I'm glad we've still got Lilly. Anyways...

I am not happy about Favre playing for the Jets. Of course, I think I know Green Bay's strategy here. They know that Favre will have to play against New England twice a year for as long as he stays unretired. They know that Belichick is an evil genius who likes nothing better than to cause his opponent's mind to implode.

Last year we learned about another little fetish of Belichick: football video. Think of all of the video of Favre that the Packers have accumulated. Think of all of the other goodies that might be laying around, like Rorscach test results, etc. Now imagine all of that in the hands of Belichick... Ted Thompson may just get the last laugh.

Update: Looks like trickle down economics works after all as Miami has signed Jets castoff Chad Pennington.

Farrv-ruuh

Oh the drama in the Green Bay... So Brett Favre wants to play again next year. Green Bay does not want him to play. They are all too happy to move on and start the Aaron Rodgers era. Is Green Bay being foolish? Is Favre just going to embarrass himself trying to come out of retirement? Let's look at some facts.

Favre had a 95.7 passer rating last year. That placed him #2 in the NFC, behind Tony Romo. He was also #2 touchdown passes (28) and #3 in passing yards (4155.) So it sure seems like Favre is still playing at not just a "good" level, but an elite level. But...
In the two previous seasons, Favre had passer ratings of 70.9 and 72.7. He threw 9 more interceptions than touchdown passes during those two years. This is definitely below average for an NFL quarterback, especially for a QB in a passer-stat friendly system like they run in Green Bay.

So what Favre will show up in 2008? Everybody wants to villify Green Bay for disrespecting one the most beloved players in NFL history. I wonder what John Madden would say about it...

I digress... Anyways, you can't just say the Packers are being crazy jerks. There are some good reasons to think that Favre may not play well this season: past performance and age. Clearly they must think highly of Aaron Rodgers. Personally, I've heard a lot of sound bites from this guy, and he seems like a real jerk. But so what? He may still be a good QB, though he seems more similar to Pac-10 QBs like Cade McNown or at his best a Matt Leinart as opposed to a Carson Palmer.

So what should the Packers do? Trade Favre. However, they must trade him to a team they won't play and preferably to a team in the AFC. They need to get something back for him that will appease the fans. Luckily for the Packers, I've got the solution. They need to trade Favre for Lilly:


Who would not be happy about getting Lilly? Miami was terrible last year, so it is kind of a punishment for Favre for allowing his indecisiveness cause such problems. There is no chance that they would have to face Favre next year as well. For Miami, well losing Lilly would hurt. However, Favre would be a big upgrade. If things don't go well ... well it will still be better than last year, right? It would certainly get fans excited and at the games. It is win-win.