LBJ, Cleveland, and Miami

I was one of the millions who watched Lebron James announce that he would play for the Miami Heat next year. I have to say that the aftermath of this has been one of the most entertaining non-sports things in sports I have ever experienced. Where to start...

1.) To all of the people complaining about what an egotistical p.o.s. Lebron is for having the TV special: take a look in the mirror. Did you watch it? If the answer is yes, then shut up. You created the market for his ego, and he was simply smart enough to milk it for what it's worth. Good for him. So why are you bitter? Maybe it's because you didn't like The Decision (and I'm not talking about the TV special.)

2.) To Dan Gilbert, owner of the Cavaliers: thanks for playing! I want to tell you to grow up and stop acting like a fool, but that would be dumb. No, you've made this whole thing so much more enjoyable with your childish antics. Please continue.

3.) To the Cavaliers fans: I'm sorry, but what did you really expect? Your team has bumbled this whole thing. The kind of overpaid, underperforming players that your team has continuously brought in to try to Win Now has been predictable and pathetic. The Cavaliers as an organization is weak, and has been for years. The only reason they got Lebron seven years ago was because they lost a lot of games in the right season. Yay. They've needed a coach who could get the most out of Lebron's unprecedented talents, and that has not happened. Instead everything has been done to appease Lebron, and you see how that works out. If the Cavs had had a coach who moved Lebron to point-forward (preferably playing the four-spot), posted him up on 2/3 of the plays, and told him never to take a 3-pointer unless it was to beat the shot clock, would Lebron have stayed in Cleveland? Who knows, but I think the Cavs would have won more games, especially more playoff games. That might have lead to a championship, and that probably would have made it harder for him to leave... All that being said, I still feel sorry for Cavs fans just because of the TV show. I think that would have made me physically ill.

4.) To the Bulls, Knicks, and Nets fans: just shut up. The Cavs fans have legit gripe, but you guys don't. So you didn't win the lottery. Boo-frickin'-hoo.

5.) To Kobe Bryant: congratulations. You are no longer the most disliked player in the NBA, a position you have held at least since you kicked Shaq out of L.A. Your style of egotism just became slightly less appalling to people outside of southern California. One interesting piece of analysis I've read is that there is no way Kobe would have gone to Miami, if he would have been in Lebron's position. The reason is that he would never want to have a decreased role so that he could play alongside Dwayne Wade. This is probably true, but I have a hard time seeing this as a negative about Lebron. Imagine if Lebron had got on TV last night and said he was playing for the Knicks or Bulls next year because he not only wanted to win a championship, he wanted to be The Undisputed Man on said championship team. That's the Kobe Bryant brand of egotism, and is that really more appealing? Maybe to some people, but not to me.

6.) To Kevin Durant: your time has come. You have a very legit chance to become the most popular player in the NBA next year, and you seem to deserve it. He's an unbelievably good player. He seems to have a Kobe-like work ethic. He also seems to be unbelievably humble. He's also 21 years old. He has to be on the short list for possible MVPs next year (Lebron's stats will take a big tumble in Miami.) His team looks like it will be very good for many years to come. It would not be surprising if a year from now Durant is sporting an MVP trophy, and coming off an exciting run deep in the playoffs. The only thing that might limit his commercial/endorsement potential is his own desire to stay focussed on basketball. Can you honestly say that about any other NBA player?

7.) To my home state of Florida: basketball just became king. Between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat, my home state has three of the top five players in the NBA, two teams that will be expected to win ~60 games per year for the foreseeable future and meet each year in the Eastern Conference Finals. The only teams that could possibly stand in their way in the East are the aging Celtics and ... Maybe the Bulls if Derrick Rose becomes a top 10 player next year (which he definitely could do.) Seriously, there are going to be a lot of Florida Turnpike Series over the next five years.

8.) To Pat Riley: you are the man. You've got your work cut out for you, filling out that roster, but I'm not about to start doubting you at this point. In fact I would not be surprised if Wade, Bosh, and James all wind up taking considerably less than max contracts, all in the pursuit of a championship roster. As an Orlando Magic fan, I really hope this is not the case, but I'm too scared of Riley to think otherwise. I'm also impressed with his willingness to part with Michael Beasley, a very high and hyped draft pick. Personally I think Beasley may still turn out to be a very good NBA player, but I don't think most GMs would be willing to so quickly admit a mistake.

9.) To the pundits: let's see how long your memory is. A lot of people are saying that Lebron is taking the easy way out (even though many of those same people also think that having two All-NBA and one all-star player does not guarantee much in terms of championships.) It's Wade's team still, they say. Lebron can't be considered one of the game's greats now. That's all ridiculous to me. If Lebron continues to play the high level he's played at, and the Heat win multiple championships, none of this will matter. Nobody will care that it wasn't Lebron's team. Magic Johnson was never the "give me the ball at clutch time and get out of the way" kind of player, but nobody doubts his greatness. Lebron is much more cut in his mold than he is Michael Jordan's, and frankly it would be pleasing to see Lebron accept this. I think his stats will suffer, but mostly just scoring. I don't think his assists will necessarily suffer, especially if the Heat play an uptempo game (which they should.) His rebounding will go up if he plays in the paint more, and again if the Heat play uptempo. Imagine if he had a three year stretch averaging 20 points, 12 assists, 12 rebounds per game, while shooting 55% from the field? Throw in a couple of titles, and you're telling me he's not one of the top five players of all time? Nobody will care if Wade has the ball in his hands at crunch time.

The 0-Guard

Last week I was reading an excellent article by Bill Simmons on the "true" trade value of NBA players. While talking about likely rookie-of-the-year Tyreke Evans, Simmons dubbed him 0-guard. I thought that this was quite clever, and several other players immediately came to mind. Simmons went on to list three other players as 0-guards: Gilbert Arenas, Dwayne Wade, and Brandon Roy. I thought of some others. Here are what I would call the defining characteristics of the 0-guard:

1.) They must have the ball in their hands. These are players who generally useless on offense without the ball. They are not good spot-up shooters. They aren't going to move well without the ball to get open or get teammates open. They generally look lost in a half-court offense if the ball is not in their hands at all times.

2.) They are not good passers. Now many 0-guards rack up a lot of assists. However that is just because the ball is always in their hands. The only way they pass the ball is if the defense is all over them and teammates are wide open, hence the assists. However, they don't always do this very effectively. For example, in his best years Arenas averaged 6 assists/game, but also 3.5 turnovers/game while averaging 21 shots/game and 10 free throw attempts/game. Last year, Dwayne Wade averaged 7.5 assists/game, but that came with 5 turnovers/game, while taking 22 shots and 10 free throws per game.

3.) They can get their shot -- easily. This kind of goes without saying. All of these guys are effective at creating for themselves/getting open off the dribble, around screens, etc. If they couldn't do this, they would not be playing at all. Often they are spectacularly good at this -- Dwayne Wade for example.

These are the three obvious 0-guard characteristics. However, there are some other more subtle shared characteristics.

4.) They are poor rebounders. These guys want to get out in transition, so they do not hit the defensive glass and they make no attempts to box out anyone.

5.) They are defensive liabilities. Sort of a continuation from #4. All of their energy goes into scoring, not much is left for defense. Now some guys may average a lot of steals, but that is a notoriously misleading statistic when it comes to defense.

6.) Point guard size. Maybe this helps to explain #5 and #4, but these guys generally don't have the size to match up against shooting guards. This does not necessarily imply being short -- Wade is 6-4 and Evans is 6-6.

Given the above, I don't think Brandon Roy belongs on the list. For his career he has averaged 5 assists but only 2 turnovers per game, while taking 16 shots and 6 free throw attempts per game. That does not sound like a guy who has to have the ball in hand -- or maybe I'm wrong and he's just not a very good 0-guard. I think Simmons put him on the list because Roy demands the ball in his hands at the end of games.

There are some other obvious guys who belong on this list. Starting locally, Monta Ellis is definitely a 0-guard. This year he has averaged 5 assists / 4 turnovers per game, while taking 22 shots and 6 free throw attempts per game. This is definitely Arenas/Wade country. Brandon Jennings is borderline. So is Derrick Rose, but in both cases these guys are young enough to "grow out of it." Rodney Stuckey is a 0-guard, but not a very good one. Jason Terry also qualifies, but he doesn't realize it. He thinks he can spot-up and shoot, but he can't. 

Finally, I think Bill Simmons got it wrong when he said that Gilbert Arenas invented the 0-guard position. To me, the quintessential and original 0-guard was Allen Iverson. He had a season (01-02) where he averaged 5.5 assists / 4.0 turnovers to go with 28 shots and 10 free throw attempts per game! Now late in his career, he did become a better passer, but was still more of a 0-guard than a point guard.

Statistically Useless

One of the nice things about living in the Bay Area is that we have a lot of major professional sports teams: two NFL teams, two MLB teams, one NBA team, and one NHL team. Never you mind that they all stink currently, except for the Sharks. With so many teams, sports radio is a lot of fun. Today I was listening to Fitz & Brooks as they fielded a question from a listener about the Golden State Warriors and their lack of defense. They made the case that the Warriors have a lot of defensive talent because they are 6th in the league in steals and 1st in the league in blocked shots. They argued that the Warriors just needed to allow less "blow-bys." I looked around, but could not find this statistic.

I was almost really impressed by Fitz & Brooks. It seemed like they were on the verge of saying "NBA statistics are meaningless" but they could not go that far. The NBA keeps a lot of statistics, but they really are mostly meaningless. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, etc. None of these are particularly good at determining if a player will make his team more or less likely to win a game. That is why you see guys like David Lee, Troy Murphy, Jose Calderon, and Mario Chalmers as statistical leaders. Look at the league leaders in blocks. Their teams are ranked 8th, 18th, 25th, 30th, and and 20th in the league in points per game. In terms of team field goal% allowed, the ranks are 3rd, 4th, 25th, 23rd, and 19th.

The NBA is hardly the exception. Most sports have a lot of meaningless (from the standpoint of predicting team success) statistics. Baseball has terrible stats like batting average, runs batted in, stolen bases, and fielding percentage. Football is not quite as bad mostly just because there are less stats. Still things like rushing touchdowns and even passing yards are pretty worthless.

Of course baseball has seen a statistical renaissance and it is known as sabremetrics. Michael Lewis's Moneyball is a popular work that discusses the value of sabremetrics. It uses the success of the Oakland A's and their GM Billy Beane as proof, but if it was written today, then the success of the Boston Red Sox would be (more?) compelling. Lewis expanded this "nerdy numbers leading to unexpected success" plot to basketball recently by writing an article about the Houston Rockets' Shane Battier. Basketball is tougher sport to measure though. Maybe there will be sabremetrics in basketball eventually, who knows.

It was definitely easier in baseball, where some of the statistical ingredients for more meaningful sabremetrics were already measured (like number of walks, total bases, etc.) What would similar stats in basketball be? Certainly making shots is good, missing shots is bad. How do you measure a three point play vs. a three point field goal? If a player takes a shot and misses, but somebody else gets an offensive rebound and an easy field goal, how is this measured?

Arrest Steve Kerr

Do you remember the Phoenix Suns? Do you remember the team that played like it was 1979? Do you remember Steve Nash dishing out 20 assists a game? Do you remember Amare Stoudemire scoring 40 points a game all on dunks? Do you remember barrages of 3pters coming from Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Raja Bell, Leo Barbosa, and yes Shawn Marion? Man, those were the days.

Seems so long ago, but it was just a year (ok Richardson and Johnson let a couple of years ago.) Even if you had no interest in the Suns, if like basketball, then you had to love those Suns. But you know how it goes, it's hard to keep great teams together, and the Suns are no exception. So what happened to them? Salary cap? Player egos? Injuries? Nope. Steve Kerr.

Steve Kerr has singlehandedly destroyed this time. First, he traded away Shawn Marion for Shaq. He's been lucky with this move. Shaq has played as good as you could possibly hope. Most importantly, he has stayed healthy. Nonetheless, this was a terrible mistake. Marion was a perfect fit. He played great defense, ran the floor, and could shoot from the perimeter. You are forced into a slower tempo game with Shaq.

As bad as that move was, Kerr was far from done. Next he fired Mike D'Antoni. This is the man who brought in the fast paced style of the Suns. This is the man who turned the franchise around and won a coach of the year award along the way. Now he's doing the same thing, but for the Knicks. The Knicks have admittedly been jettisoning players so they can make a move for LeBron James next year. Yet, they have already won almost as many games this year as they did last year. Back to the Suns. Kerr got rid of the man who turned the franchise around, and instead put in a yes-man in the form of Terry Porter.

But it just gets better... Next Kerr makes the classic mistake of trading for an overpriced "star" in the form of Jason Richardson. He got rid of two key players: Raja Bell and Boris Diaw. Bell was a great shooter, and Diaw was a big man who could pass. Richardson is a fine player, but he needs to be the focus of an offense. He doesn't have the outside shooting to complement the other players on Phoenix.

So what does all of this lead to? The Suns are on pace to win 46 games. That would be 8 games less than any full season under D'Antoni. They are also on pace to miss the playoffs, something that never happened under D'Antoni. Way to go Kerr.

Guess what, he's not done. Now he's looking to gut the team to save money. After all, this season is clearly a loss. In particular he wants to trade Amare Stoudemire. Yeah that makes sense. He's hurt Stoudemire by bringing in Shaq and changing the way the team played, so he responds by trading him away. This is going to be one of those historically bad moves, like drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan or the Minnesota Vikings trading for Herschel Walker.

Good vs. Evil '08

No, this is not about Barack Obama vs. John McCain. This is about something much more benign: basketball. So maybe the Magic did not make it too far in the playoffs. You can't be too surprised by Celtics vs. Lakers, and probably not too unhappy either. These are the classic teams of the NBA. However it is much more than that this year. It is good vs. evil.

Good is Kevin Garnett. If either of my sons wanted to become basketball players or play sports compettitively at all, I would have no problem with them idolizing Kevin Garnett. The Celtics have not always played beautifully during the playoffs, but you can never be bored watching KG play. He's all out on every play. He'll do anything for his team and teammates. He's unselfish, almost too a fault. Everytime he plays, he demonstrates the characteristics that you hope that children learn from sports.

Evil is Kobe Bryant. Too harsh, you say? Let's not forget this guy is a rapist. Let's not forget when he sliced open Manu Ginobili's face while trying to draw a foul at the end of a game. Let's not forget all the times that he would react to criticism about shot selection by refusing to shoot during games. Let's not forget that he forced Phil Jackson and Shaquille O'Neal out of town. Let's not forget that Phil Jackson said that Kobe was uncoachable. Let's not forget that prior to this season, he was demanding a trade because the Lakers were losing.

I won't go as far as to say that Kobe embodies everything bad about pro-sports -- that would not be true. But he embodies a lot of bad things. He's not just selfish, he's a borderline sociopath. Yes he seems like a great guy this year, now that the Lakers are winning, he's making commercials again (the rape has faded from sponsors' memories), and he won the MVP award.

I remember the Celtics-Lakers series of the 80's. I always rooted for the Lakers back then. Magic Johnson was not only a great player, but completely likeable. Plus everybody where I lived rooted for the Celtics because they had so many white guys.

I used to go to Lakers games all the time when I was in college in Los Angeles.

I would love to root against the Celtics, just because Boston has enjoyed too much success this year. The Red Sox won the last World Series, and the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season.

However, the past must be put aside. The stakes are bigger. Boston's gotta win this one. Go Celtics.

NBA Playoffs

I am very excited about the NBA playoffs, and for one very simple reason...

Go Magic!

I went to my first Magic game before they had played a regular season game (it was a pre-season game in Tallahassee.) I've lived through the betrayals of both Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady. Now we have Superman. Nobody is talking about Orlando, and that is perfect. 

Now I have to admit that Boston scares me. I really think Orlando can handle Detroit in the second round, but Boston... I also think Orlando could do well against any team in the West, but Boston... People don't seem to realize that Boston just had a historically good season. If Orlando wasn't so awesome this year, I would be rooting for Boston big time, as Kevin Garnett is one of my all time favorite players to watch.

Back in the West, everybody around here is pissed that Golden State didn't make the playoffs despite having a much better record than most of the teams in the East. It's a good reason to be upset, but Golden State controlled their own destiny. If they would have beaten Denver, at home on April 10, they would almost certainly be in the playoffs and Denver fans would be the ones pissed about the Atlanta Hawks being in the playoffs while their Nuggets were not.

Finally, here are some predictions:

East

First Round Winners: Boston(4), Detroit(6), Orlando(5), Washington (6)

Second Round Winners: Boston (4), Orlando(7)

Eastern Finals: Orlando (7)

West

First Round Winners: Lakers (6), Dallas (7), Utah (5), Phoenix (6)

Second Winners: Phoenix (6), Utah (6)

Western Finals: Utah (6)

Utah, like Orlando is much better than people realize. Phoenix traded for Shaq so they can deal with San Antonio and the Lakers, but they won't be able to deal with Utah. 

NBA Finals: Orlando over Utah (6)

National Champions (Again)

I'm starting to feel rather spoiled and a little guilty. The Gators won another national championship. Now we have back-to-back basketball championships and a football championship. That's just ridiculous. If we don't another championship of any sort for a long time, we can't complain.

This championship is by far the least surprising. We won it last year, and everyone came back with only one intention: repeating as champions. I've been a little overwhelmed to see so many sports writers naming the Gators as one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time. I think I'm just feeling a little too appreciative of what's happened to go that far, but it's really true. At the very least the Gator front-line has to go down as the most dominating in a long, lone time. It's amazing in an era where guards generally rule the game, the Gators rule the college game by going big.

Of course big is fine, but its the talent level that matters. Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Corey Brewer are all future NBA players. Noah and Horford could both play PF and maybe C, and Brewer is a prototypical SF. It's not unreasonable to imagine them as a front-line in the NBA, and that's the biggest reason why Florida has been so unstoppable. Chemistry, unselfishness, etc. are all well and good, but Florida had overwhelming talent.

If you look at in perspective, they haven't really been challenged in the NCAA tournament over the last two years. There's a lot of comparisons being made between Florida and the 91-93 Duke team that had been the last team to repeat. That team played some very close games, including the infamous overtime victory over Kentucky. Florida didn't have any close games. This year's Final Four victories came over two teams that spent a huge amount of time at the top of the rankings all year long: UCLA and Ohio State. Neither team was even close to being good enough to beat Florida.

So yeah, as the cheer goes "Ain't it great to be a Florida Gator!" Of course for next year, Taurean Green is probably the only guy who will be around. The football team has to replace its entire defense. So I expect the reign of glory to come to an end. It doesn't matter though. The beginning of 2007 is something every Gator fan will always remember.

Final Four

The Gators rolled to another Final Four. Next a rematch with UCLA. Everyone says that UCLA is much better this year than last year. Are people forgetting they lost their best player, Jordan Farmar? Who did Florida lose from last year? Nobody.

That being said, Florida was on a huge roll last year and UCLA folded mentally very early in the game. The Gators definitely aren't as hot as they were a year ago. The pressure to repeat has got to them. It won't be enough though, as they should beat UCLA pretty easily.

March Madness

The Tournament started Thursday, but today it really gets started for The Gators. Most years The Bracket is everything, but this year all I care about is The Gators repeating. I knew there was no chance of them losing in the first round, but now things get a lot tougher against Purdue. I think Purdue is going to be really over matched on the inside against Florida. That's true of most teams, but even more so for Purdue.