The Champs and 2010

Just a week ago, the Florida Gators once again won the college football national championship. It was a tense game, much more so than any of their three other championship game appearances. Florida was blown out by Nebraska in 1995, but won easily against FSU in 1996 and Ohio State in 2007. A couple of things really stood out from the game

Sam Bradford is the next Gino Toretta. I can't take credit for saying that. One of my friends made that claim while we were eating lunch on game day. Now given this guy is from Texas and is a huge Longhorn fan... But I think he has a point. Maybe saying Bradford is the next Matt Leinart would be just as accurate. He has really benefited from having amazing talent around him. He is not used to facing any pressure from a pass rush and he is used to throwing to receivers who dominate defensive backs. He faced pressure against Florida, but most of all, his receivers could not dominate Florida's DBs. He threw two picks, but neither were bad throws on his part. However his receivers were far from wide open and Florida's DBs made great plays. Toretta and Leinart suffered from the same "problem" and never adjusted in the NFL.

Urban Meyer is a great coach. The Gators were shaky in the first half. Maybe it was nerves, maybe it was rust, who knows. Their gameplan was sound, but it took two improbably defensive stands to keep the game tied going into halftime. Who knows what happens if the game would have been 21-7 in favor OU at half? Meyer showed his ability to communicate and motivate his players. They didn't come out in the second half and drastically change their gameplan. But they did execute much better.

Florida is really going to miss Percy Harvin. Does Florida win either of its two recent championships without Percy Harvin? I really don't know how things will turn out for him in the NFL. People talk about how Tebow isn't a traditional QB, but Harvin isn't a traditional WR. He was most productive at running the football in the BCS championship. He clearly can't be a RB in the NFL, but his height will be an issue at WR. A lot of people have described him as a "slot receiver" in the NFL, but do you really want him going over the middle and taking big hits? Anyways, he's always been a ticking bomb in his college career. Every time he touches the ball, there is a big play ready to happen. This year he averaged 1 TD for every 6.5 touches of the ball. He did this playing against the best defenses in the country. The only other recent college player who was as electrifying was Reggie Bush. Like Bush, it seems unlikely that Harvin's pro career can be anywhere close to his college career.

Speaking of players going pro... Obviously I was thrilled that Tebow is staying. I did not think he would leave, though. I was thrilled that Brandon Spikes is staying for his senior year. Honestly I don't know why. Everything I had seen indicated that Spikes would be a first round pick. Given his position (LB), it is hard to imagine him improving his pro stock. Whatever. With Spikes back, Florida is returning all of its defense. That's right, a defense that held the highest scoring team ever (OU) to 14 points will return all of its starters next year. Next year is going to be fun.

Going to other teams, I was absolutely shocked that Sam Bradford is returning. A lot of folks had him as the #1 pick overall and everybody had him as a top 10 lock. So why come back? There's no way their offense can be better than it was this year. A lot of things have to go you way to have a historical season. If throws in a couple of stinkers next year, then he could easily drop in the 2010 draft. And then there's "I" word, especially given his lean stature. Similarly I can't belive their TE Gresham is going back either. Maybe these guys think they have something to prove...

One player not going back is Mark Sanchez. I was pretty surprised to see Pete Carroll rip into Sanchez for leaving early for the NFL. You have to wonder if Bradford staying influenced this, as Sanchez may be the second QB taken now behind Georgia's Matthew Stafford. I am very happy to see Stafford go, as I think he will be great in the NFL. Plus he A.J. Green is an NFL caliber receiver, and the prospect of Green and Stafford was just scary. Green had a great year last year as a true freshman.

Gameday

There are two games from this season that provide insight into today's Florida vs. Alabama game. First is Florida vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs have an offense with some significant similarities to Alabama's offense. They have a great, power running back (Knowshon Moreno) and a big play wide receiver (A.J. Green). Florida's strength is its pass defense, and they are good at both man-to-man and zone. They played a lot of man-to-man against Georgia to limit Moreno (17 carries, 65 yards.) Georgia was productive through the air (292 yards) but also produced three interceptions. Florida will try this same formula against Alabama.

Alabama's Glen Coffee might actually be a more explosive runner than Moreno, and their stellar freshman receiver, Julio Jones will definitely be playing on Sundays. However, I don't think Alabama has the confidence in John Parker Wilson to let him attack Florida's man-to-man play on the WRs. If they can make some big plays in the air earlier in the game, then they can win. If not, then it is hard to see Bama putting up enough points or controlling the clock enough.

The other important game is Alabama vs. LSU. LSU's running backs, Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, combined for 180 yards, 2 TDs on the ground against the vaunted Alabama defense. Alabama must do better against Florida's running backs. Look for Florida to use Rainey and/or Demps out of the ever-popular Wildcat formation. They have been experimenting with Percy Harvin out of that formation, but Harvin is out today. Everything has been pretty vanilla out of it, but you gotta figure Urban Meyer would save the more creative Wildcat plays for a game like this. Florida's rush attack is very similar to LSU's, so Alabama has to do better against it. They can't count on turnovers like they got against LSU. The thing that is going to be tough for them is that this game is on artificial turf, giving a boost to Florida's speedsters.

Gator Talk

Yesterday I went to the Florida vs. FSU football game. I haven't had much recent, personal college football history...

The last college football game I had been to was ... a Bakersfield College game earlier this year. That's not exactly Division 1. The last D1 game I had gone to was Tennessee vs. UCLA in 1997.

The last Florida football game that I attended was 1995, vs. Tennessee.

The last Florida vs. FSU game that I attended was ... 1986!

Needless to say, Saturday's game was a sweet return. I went with my brother, and we managed to stay relatively dry despite the dreary weather. Some folks thought that the Gators played a little sloppy, but I thought that the game, especially the first half, was about as good as could be ... if it wasn't for the kickoff team. FSU scored 9 points without any offense, courtesy of filed position. Two FGs were setup by long kickoff returns, and another by a fumble (only one fumble given the conditions, is not too bad.)

Anyways, all attention shifts to the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. The game is a de facto playoff game: whoever wins will be playing for the BCS Championship. Injuries are playing a big part of this game. Percy Harvin hurt his ankle last night against FSU, and that is a huge blow. The Gators have a lot of dangerous players, but Harvin is the most dangerous. You have got to assume that either he will not go, or (worse) will play, but play ineffectively. Advantage Alabama.

The Gators still have their three blazing fast running backs, Rainey, Demps, and Moody. They will have to get more out of these guys. However, this game will on artificial turf in the Georgia Dome. The fast track definitely favors Florida.

Florida will also get Lawrence Marsh back. That should help, as they looked a little vulnerable up the middle at times against FSU. If the Gators are stout up the middle (as they have been all year,) it will be very tough for Alabama to score much. Oh what I wouldn't give to go to that game!

The Heisman and System QBs

There has been a lot of talk about "system" QBs. People point out Andre Ware or Texas Tech as examples of how systems can lead to inflated numbers. Sure they can. But the real issue is level of competition, not systems. That's why Texas Tech puts up big offensive numbers. That's why Hawaii does, too. A low level of competition will always cast extra scrutiny on star players.

Nobody complained about Tommie Frazier winning the Heisman. Clearly he was in a "system" albeit one where he ran the ball much more than he threw. It didn't matter. Nebraska played and beat the best out there. It takes a great player to perform at such a high level against tough competition.

June Jones and others have also made a point about the NFL potential of players being a factor in Heisman voting. That is just ridiculous. If NFL talent was relevant at all, then Peyton Manning should have won three Heismans. There has never been a more sure-fire future Pro Bowl quarterback coming out of college, but he did not win the Heisman and for good reason.

There have been many Heisman winners to have no little or no NFL success, particularly quarterbacks: Ware, Frazier, Charlie Ward, Danny Wuerffel, Jason White just to name a few. There is nothing wrong with this. It's part of the beauty of college athletics that it's not just the most physically gifted individuals who have the most success.

So sorry June Jones. Maybe your boy will be good in the NFL, who knows? Nobody runs your "pro" offense there, so I don't know how much his experience in Hawaii will help. Whatever the case, Hawaii has not played against formidable competition at all. You can't claim to be the best without playing against at other good teams. That is why Hawaii's undefeated season will not get them a shot at a national title game, and that's why Colt Brennan could throw 100 TDs and not win the Heisman.

As a side note, there was one thing that made me really happy when I read about June Jones's disparaging comments about Tim Tebow. I learned that Hawaii opens its season next year at The Swamp. Talk about sweet justice! Hawaii is going to torn up by Georgia in a few weeks, so that will demonstrate how meaningless their perfect season is... But it will be even more demonstrated next August. And before anyone brings up Boise State from last  year, try to actually remember that game. They had every break in the world, and still had to gamble on a trick play to be able to win that game. If that game was played nine more times, how many times do you think Boise State would win? Let's be honest here, maybe once?

Weekly Football Musings

The BCS
Will this year be enough of a reason to unseat the Big 10's resistance to a playoff? I don't think so. They have such a $weet deal with ABC and the Rose Bowl. But could you just imagine if today would have been tournament seeding day, a la basketball, instead of bowl schedule day? Let's say we could do an eight team tourney (three weeks like the basketball tourney.) We would have

Ohio State vs. Kansas : This would be #1 vs. #8. Would Ohio State even be favored in this? Yeah probably, but not by a lot. This would theoretically be the most lopsided game, and it would still be very competitive.

LSU vs. USC : How awesome would this game be? I could imagine a lot of people predicting that the winner here wins the next two weeks as well. Also, would this be the first college football game ever where ever defensive starter would go on to start in the NFL one day?

Virginia Tech vs. Missouri : This game would be very interesting if for no other reason than the contrast in styles. You gotta think that Missouri would come into this game feeling very disrespected.

Oklahoma vs. Georgia : Wow, another slugfest. Georgia's offense really clicked down the stretch... Bob Stoops knows all about SEC football, but this might be a case of too much physical difference. Georgia is bigger and faster than Oklahoma at every position... Ok maybe not, but you know people would be making arguments like that.

That's the kind of amazing games we would see out of an eight team playoff. And of course West Virginia and Hawaii would both be freaking out that they are not part of the eight teams. You can just hear Hawaii complaining about going undefeated but not going to the big dance...

The Heisman
Let the buildup start. I am ridiculously biased, I know. But how can Tim Tebow not win this? If somebody told you last summer that a QB would throw for almost 3000 yards and 30 TDs and also ran for over 800 yards and 20 more TDs ... you would say that guy would win the Heisman. Somehow Tebow only being a sophomore and Florida not being in the BCS championship have decreased Tebow's amazing season. That is just crazy. Florida lost three games, in a year where everybody lost at least two. Anybody who watched Florida knows they lost games because of their completely inexperienced defense. The offense was much better than last year's national championship team, and Tebow was the biggest reason for that.

Tebow must win the Heisman. Chances are that this will be his best season, statistically. I think Coach Meyer would prefer to have more playmakers (not just Percy Harvin) around Tebow at WR/RB. If that is the case next year, Florida will run the ball a lot more. It will translate into less pass attempts for Tebow and less rushes for him, too. I think his efficiency will stay very high, and he will probably still score a lot of rushing TDs, but gross numbers will probably drop quite a bit.

Are They Really This Good?

Two weeks ago I was at a friend's house in San Francisco watching Cal play Tennessee. Somebody asked me who I was rooting for. I stated that I would usually root for an SEC team, but that I hate Tennessee. I felt compelled to repeat that with emphasis: I hate Tennessee.

So I really enjoyed watching Florida crush Tennessee yesterday. I found myself wondering: Is Florida really this good? I mean 59-20 !?!?

In all fairness, Florida got lucky. It was 28-20 when Tennessee fumbled the ball and Florida ran it in for a touchdown. Tennessee seemed to really fold after that. But isn't that how any blowout goes? There's some back-breaking play and the loser folds? One of the hallmarks of a great team is sensing this and jumping on it. That's exactly what Florida did yesterday.

Are they a great team? Hard to say. I will say this, barring some kind of awful injuries, Florida's offense is great. I thought they would be great next year, but we didn't have to do wait. When Urban Meyer came to Florida, every Gator fan thought "wow what would this guy's offense look like with the kind of athletic talent the state of Florida grows?" Certainly this had to be part of what Meyer wondered too when he accepted the job at Florida after turning down the Notre Dame job.

Now we know what the answer is. It's not the speed option anymore, it's the supersonic option. It's like watching a kick return on every play. There's so much action going on. And oh man, how it opens up the passing game! Did you see the 49 yard pass from Tebow to Harvin from the Florida 1 yard line? What made it so ridiculous was that it was play action. Play action from your own end zone? Unthinkable normally, but not when you can do play action on a three step drown and not involve the running back. The play action was to Tebow. He faked like he was going to run. Truth be known, that play should have gone a TD. A year from now, you can be sure it will, but Tebow was a little excited on that play and his throw wasn't as accurate as usual.

Harvin is the real key. His health scares me at times. He seems a little fragile. He's as talented as Reggie Bush in my opinion. He is such a perfect fit for Florida's offense. He makes the running game scarier, not to mention the passing game. I can't wait to see what LSU tries to do against him.

And of course that's when we really find out how good Florida is. LSU is such a hard place to win at, and their defense is ridiculous. I'm not too scared of their offense though. It's going to come down to strength against strength.

At Least One Guy is Staying...

After what happened last year with Nick Saban, I was definitely worried that Billy Donovan would bolt for Kentucky. I guess it's easier to stay put coming off back-to-back championships rather than a losing season. Of course the Florida football team won the SEC championship the same year that Steve Spurrier left for the NFL. Anyways, Donovan will be back. I really think Taurean Green should come back. The Gators will start have a lot of rebuilding to do next year. You gotta figure it's an attractive situation for high school stars: defending back-to-back champions, great coach, exciting style of play, etc.

National Champions (Again)

I'm starting to feel rather spoiled and a little guilty. The Gators won another national championship. Now we have back-to-back basketball championships and a football championship. That's just ridiculous. If we don't another championship of any sort for a long time, we can't complain.

This championship is by far the least surprising. We won it last year, and everyone came back with only one intention: repeating as champions. I've been a little overwhelmed to see so many sports writers naming the Gators as one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time. I think I'm just feeling a little too appreciative of what's happened to go that far, but it's really true. At the very least the Gator front-line has to go down as the most dominating in a long, lone time. It's amazing in an era where guards generally rule the game, the Gators rule the college game by going big.

Of course big is fine, but its the talent level that matters. Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Corey Brewer are all future NBA players. Noah and Horford could both play PF and maybe C, and Brewer is a prototypical SF. It's not unreasonable to imagine them as a front-line in the NBA, and that's the biggest reason why Florida has been so unstoppable. Chemistry, unselfishness, etc. are all well and good, but Florida had overwhelming talent.

If you look at in perspective, they haven't really been challenged in the NCAA tournament over the last two years. There's a lot of comparisons being made between Florida and the 91-93 Duke team that had been the last team to repeat. That team played some very close games, including the infamous overtime victory over Kentucky. Florida didn't have any close games. This year's Final Four victories came over two teams that spent a huge amount of time at the top of the rankings all year long: UCLA and Ohio State. Neither team was even close to being good enough to beat Florida.

So yeah, as the cheer goes "Ain't it great to be a Florida Gator!" Of course for next year, Taurean Green is probably the only guy who will be around. The football team has to replace its entire defense. So I expect the reign of glory to come to an end. It doesn't matter though. The beginning of 2007 is something every Gator fan will always remember.

Final Four

The Gators rolled to another Final Four. Next a rematch with UCLA. Everyone says that UCLA is much better this year than last year. Are people forgetting they lost their best player, Jordan Farmar? Who did Florida lose from last year? Nobody.

That being said, Florida was on a huge roll last year and UCLA folded mentally very early in the game. The Gators definitely aren't as hot as they were a year ago. The pressure to repeat has got to them. It won't be enough though, as they should beat UCLA pretty easily.

March Madness

The Tournament started Thursday, but today it really gets started for The Gators. Most years The Bracket is everything, but this year all I care about is The Gators repeating. I knew there was no chance of them losing in the first round, but now things get a lot tougher against Purdue. I think Purdue is going to be really over matched on the inside against Florida. That's true of most teams, but even more so for Purdue.

41-14

What more can I say? I honestly feel bad for Ohio State. They are a great team that had a lot of bad luck and didn't know how to respond. It reminds me of when Florida got thumped by Nebraska in 1996.

But forget Ohio State. This is all about The Gators. Chris Leak goes out on top of a historic career. Who wants to claim that Michigan deserved to be there instead of Florida now? I had to listen to so much pre-game hype about how much better Ohio State was than Florida. This was supposed to be a coronation of King Troy Smith, and instead he got destroyed. The Florida pass rush was devastating. It seemed like Ohio State thought they would control the line of scrimmage (they're the bigger, stronger team, right?) and that Florida would have to blitz to get pressure. Wrong!

Florida's offense benefited from lots of great field position, but also from a tentative Ohio State defense that played a ton of zone. They were too obsessed with not giving up the big play that they let Florida do whatever they wanted to offensively. Maybe that could have worked if Florida would not have been playing on the Ohio State side of the field all night. I thought that Ohio State might be vulnerable because they would be overconfident and conservative on offense, but it was actually on defense where this happened.

So Florida reigns supreme, both in basketball and football. That's never happened before. I think it really shows the importance of coaching.

Finally, I hope that Ron Zook takes some pleasure in tonight's victory. A lot of The Gators were recruited by Zook, especially Chris Leak. The team definitely has a lot of guys recruited by Urban Meyer, and he deserves all the tremendous credit coming his way. But Zook was a great recruiter, and all the Gator Nation should feel a debt to him tonight.

Gator Day

Pardon the crazy colors on the blog. I had to change them for today, since this is Gator Day. My kids and I are all donned in Gator gear. I am planning on leaving work early so I can be home in time for the kickoff of tonight's Championship Game.

This will be the third time for Florida in a BCS Championship Game. I remember the other two times quite well. Actually this year is similar in many ways to their first title game against Nebraska in 1996. That game was also in Tempe, AZ and the Gators were playing a heavily favored midwest team with a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback ("Touchdown" Tommie Frazier.) Let's just hope that's where the similarities end and that this year has more in common with 1997, when the Gators won the BCS Championship in the Sugar Bowl by crushing Florida State.

So how can the Gators beat the heavily favored Ohio State Buckeyes? Well, first I'm hoping for a little help from Ohio State. I'm hoping they will be overconfident and play conservatively. They have a great running game and Jim Tressel has been known to lean on that running game heavily against teams that he thinks his team "should" beat. I'm hoping that he employs that strategy against Florida, because Florida can stop the run. Just ask Arkansas.

I'd love to see Chris Leak get a chance to really do what he does best -- throw the ball all over the place. However, Chris has not had his best games against tough defenses. The Ohio State - Michigan game showed that you can run against Ohio State if you have speed. So I expect to see a lot of Deshawn Wynn and lots of running plays or screens to the wide receivers. Ohio State will be paranoid about Percy Harvin, so don't be surprised if Bubba Caldwell has some opportunities on reverses and screens. Harvin is going to get the ball, though. It doesn't matter that Ohio State may be the first team this year to gameplan specifically for him. I expect to see some kind of trick play involving him catching the ball deep. Maybe from Tim Tebow?

Florida hasn't blown out too many teams this year, and they're not going to start with Ohio State. If Ohio State plays conservatively, I think the game will stay close and that Florida has the advantage in such a game. I'm most worried about Ohio State coming out like they did against Michigan, spreading the field and throwing the ball a lot. Florida's strategy against that kind of offense this year has been to say "you may make some big plays against us, but we'll force some negative ones too." I think they would play the same way against Ohio State, I'm just not sure if they could cause enough negative plays to negate the big plays that Ohio State is capable of. I'm also worried that Ohio State could actually run the ball in that scenario.

BCS -- The Final Chapter

So it was a good weekend for the Gator Nation. I was surprised to see USC fall, though they've really been pretty shaky at many time this year. I was pleased to see how well Florida played against Arkansas, particularly the Florida defense holding Arkansas to 130 yards total on the ground. I still thought that there was a very good chance that Michigan would get a re-match with Ohio State for the BCS Championship.

Then I saw a lot of people lobbying for Florida on Saturday nigth and in the papers on Sunday morning. I think the thing that held weight for a lot of people was that a team playing for the national title should have won it's conference. A Big 10 vs. SEC championship just made a lot of sense to people, so even though they may not have liked Florida, they moved them up to #2 in the polls. That turned out to be enough, and now Florida will play Ohio State on January 8.

I'll be the first to admit that Florida may not be as good as Michigan. However, I don't think Michigan could do any better the second time against Ohio State than they did the first. It is usually harder to beat a team twice, but Michigan was lucky to be within 3 points at the end of that game. A neutral field would help them, no doubt, but I think Ohio State would have won by double digits. Maybe Florida doesn't have a chance either, but I think their defense will give Ohio State some problems. Ohio State has not played against any team with anywhere near the speed of Florida's. But whatever. Florida deserves a shot at the title more than Michigan, who has already had their chance to beat #1. We all know that a playoff is needed, and now they'll be a lot of people from Michigan behind that idea. The entire SEC has been behind the idea ever since what happened to Auburn a few years ago.