Wildcards

Yesterday I was reading Bill Simmons' predictions for the NFL wildcard games. I was familiar with his Playoff Manifesto, so I thought that he might actually pick the Miami Dolphins over the Baltimore Ravens. After all, Miami has a number of the Manifestos' rules in its favor:

Rule #1: Never back a crappy QB on the road. Maybe crappy is too harsh of a term for Joe Flacco, but he is a rookie with limited upside. And he's on the road against an experienced QB.

Rule #2: When in doubt, seek out the popular opinion and go the other way. Check out the "experts' picks": They all pick Baltimore.

Rule #6: Ignore the final records and concentrate on how the teams finished the last five or six games of the season. Miami won their last five games and nine of their last ten. In fairness, Baltimore finished very strong too.

Rule #8: Beware the road favorite. Baltimore is a road favorite, Miami the home-underdog.

Those were all rules definitely in favor of Miami. In fact, none of Simmons' rules would lead one to pick Baltimore over Miami. So Simmons picked Miami, right? Nope. He got on the Ravens bandwagon and picked Baltimore to win by 19. Ouch. Hopefully he'll be kicking himself on Monday!

How 'Bout Them 'Fins!

This is the first of two NFL posts. This is the happy one. My childhood team, the Miami Dolphins, amazingly made the playoffs yesterday by beating the New York Jets. They went from 1-15 last year to 11-5 and this year, thus providing hope for Detroit Lions fans everywhere... Admittedly I did not get to watch too much Dolphin football this year (or last year for that matter) because I am in the Bay Area. Based on what I saw and what I have read over the last two years, there are a couple of major reasons for the turn around.

1.) Health. Last year Miami was plagued with injuries. Ronnie Brown started the year off on fire, making huge plays in both the running and passing game. I always joked that Brown would rack up 100 yards on the ground in the first half, while the game was close, and then another 100 yards through the air in the second half when Miami was trying to come back. It's not just Brown. The D-line was healthy all year. The O-line only had one missed game combined. The secondary is obviously the weak link of the defense, but at least there were a lot less games missed this year than last.

2.) Parcells and Sparano. The new brain trust certainly re-built the team beautifully. That healthy D-line? All new. The O-line returned several starters from last year, but was certainly improved by drafting Jake Long. Certainly the addition of Chad Pennington helped -- a lot. But don't forget about other subtle improvements like trading for Anthony Fasano.

3.) Brett Favre. I'm not putting him here because of the three picks he threw in the season finale against Miami, but because of his offseason drama. If Favre would have never retired, he would have stayed at Green Bay this year. I don't want to even try to speculate how that would have turned out -- Green Bay was bad this year because their defense could not stop the run -- but I know how it would have affected Miami. Favre in Green Bay, means no Favre in New York, and that means no Chad Pennington in Miami. Pennington is no messiah, but he was good. He posted a 97.4 QB rating! That was second in the NFL! He was obviously a huge improvement over the mess that Miami had last year. Here's a few more stats for you: Miami was 5th in offense in the AFC, 6th in run offense, 5th in pass offense, and had the fewest turnovers in the AFC. Thanks Favre!

With all of that being said, I shoudl expect Miami to roll to the Super Bowl, right? Well maybe not. I do think Miami has a good chance against Baltimore this weekend. Miami was 5th against the run, but only 12th against the pass in the AFC. Baltimore was only 13th in passing, and with Miami at home ... they have a chance! The early line has Baltimore as a 4.5 point favorite, so obviously some smart folks think Miami's fantastic run is about to end. Either way, it's been a great season for Miami.

Farrv-ruuh

Oh the drama in the Green Bay... So Brett Favre wants to play again next year. Green Bay does not want him to play. They are all too happy to move on and start the Aaron Rodgers era. Is Green Bay being foolish? Is Favre just going to embarrass himself trying to come out of retirement? Let's look at some facts.

Favre had a 95.7 passer rating last year. That placed him #2 in the NFC, behind Tony Romo. He was also #2 touchdown passes (28) and #3 in passing yards (4155.) So it sure seems like Favre is still playing at not just a "good" level, but an elite level. But...
In the two previous seasons, Favre had passer ratings of 70.9 and 72.7. He threw 9 more interceptions than touchdown passes during those two years. This is definitely below average for an NFL quarterback, especially for a QB in a passer-stat friendly system like they run in Green Bay.

So what Favre will show up in 2008? Everybody wants to villify Green Bay for disrespecting one the most beloved players in NFL history. I wonder what John Madden would say about it...

I digress... Anyways, you can't just say the Packers are being crazy jerks. There are some good reasons to think that Favre may not play well this season: past performance and age. Clearly they must think highly of Aaron Rodgers. Personally, I've heard a lot of sound bites from this guy, and he seems like a real jerk. But so what? He may still be a good QB, though he seems more similar to Pac-10 QBs like Cade McNown or at his best a Matt Leinart as opposed to a Carson Palmer.

So what should the Packers do? Trade Favre. However, they must trade him to a team they won't play and preferably to a team in the AFC. They need to get something back for him that will appease the fans. Luckily for the Packers, I've got the solution. They need to trade Favre for Lilly:


Who would not be happy about getting Lilly? Miami was terrible last year, so it is kind of a punishment for Favre for allowing his indecisiveness cause such problems. There is no chance that they would have to face Favre next year as well. For Miami, well losing Lilly would hurt. However, Favre would be a big upgrade. If things don't go well ... well it will still be better than last year, right? It would certainly get fans excited and at the games. It is win-win.

NFL Rumors

From an this article on Y! Sports:

"Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones will feel compelled to make a big splash this offseason. The most popular speculation is he'll trade his two first-round picks and running back Marion Barber (a restricted free agent) to the Miami Dolphins for the No. 1-overall selection in the NFL Draft. Jones then could select Arkansas running back Darren McFadden."

Whoa! I like that rumor. I know Miami needs D, but I think Glen Dorsey is way-overrated. He is the logical #1 pick for Miami, so I would love to see them deal the pick. Getting two #1's would be great. I love Marion Barber as well, even though Ronnie Brown looked like the best back in football last year before he got hurt. Seriously the guy would put 100 yards on the ground in the first half of games. Then in the second half, with Miami down by double digits (because they had no defense to speak of) he would rack up another 100 yards receiving. If nothing else, Marion Barber is an awesome insurance policy, and he has ties with new Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano.

The Dolphins offense looked ok before injuries killed them. Oh and before trading Chris Chambers. QB continues to be a problem, but from that same article..."

"Eagles could trade McNabb"

Disappointing Dolphins

Yesterday's news that Nick Saban had left Miami for Alabama was not surprising. It was yet another disappointment in a season of the for Miami. The Dolphins finished so strong last season that I really thought they would be a playoff team this season. When they traded for Daunte Culpepper, I thought they could go deep in the playoffs, depending on how well Daunte had recovered from knee surgery.

Then reality struck. Daunte was nowhere near ready. The offense struggled because of his knee problems, but that wasn't all there was to blame. Losing offensive coordinator Scott Linehan really hurt too. Joey Harrington at QB made the Dolphins passing game roughly equivalent to what it had been at the end of last season, except that Chris Chambers was now missing. I have no idea what happened to him. He looked like he could be the best receiver in the game at the end of last season and that was with nobody throwing to him. Harrington was no worse than Gus Frerotte. Frerotte's QB rating last season was 71.9 while Harrington's rating this season 68.2. Not a huge difference. One can only imagine that if Chambers was playing at anywhere near the level he had played at in 2005 that Harrington's rating would have certainly been higher.

The only good news was that the defense stayed solid. It was another good year for veterans Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. I think Taylor has a good shot at NFL Defensive Player of the Year, especially since his top competitor, Shawn Merriman, has a steroid cloud hanging over his head. Of course now Taylor is talking about retiring... Having your coach quit probably isn't going to help convince him to stay.

As for Saban going to Alabama... It sucks he has to go to an SEC team! He's a good coach. He's not really getting any more money there, I think he just wanted an easier job. The NFL was too much for him. So it's probably a good thing for Miami in the long run. An offensive minded coach is really needed in Miami. I think Culpepper can still come back as can Chambers. Ronnie Brown definitely progressed this year, and could blow up with a good passing game around him.