MLB Final Four

What can you say about the Cubs ... but wow. Statistically they were favorites against the Dodgers. Most people would have said that they were "heavy" favorites, since they had the best record in the NL. As an Atlanta Braves fan, I can tell you how little that matters. Statistically there was a 48% chance of the Dodgers winning, vs. 52% for the Cubs. That being said, there was only about a 10% chance of a sweep...

Of course those numbers are based on season statistics, and many would point out that the Dodgers were a much better team with Manny Ramirez on the team. Is this true? Their record was 29-24 with Manny vs. 55-54 without him. They outscored their opponents 249-214 with Manny, which would translate to a ridiculous 40-13 expected record. Even with 53 games, you see the craziness of small sample sizes... The Dodgers actually gave up slightly more runs per game with Manny than without him, 4.04 vs. 3.98. So the improvement really was in the offense. They scored 4.7 runs per game with Manny, vs. 4.14 without him.

So, Viva la Manny? The small sample size skews things, but they sure look like good picks for the NLCS. The Phillies were a better team in the regular season, but nobody is as good as the Manny Dodgers. You're not going to find me picking the Dodgers. The Braves were in the NL West for a long time, so I learned to hate the Dodgers many years ago. Of course that's only gotten worse since I moved to the Bay Area nine years ago.

So what about the ALCS? Boston is statiscally a better team than Tampa Bay. What is unusual too is that these two teams had strong home vs. away stats. Both teams were much better home teams than road teams. Tampa Bay won the AL East, so they have home field advantage. Could the home team win every game in this series? Even with these teams it is statistically unlikely, but the home team bias suggests that this series will be very close.

By the way, it should be no surprise that the ALCS is between two AL East teams. Six of the top AL hitters in terms of runs created were from the AL East. Ten of the top twenty hitters in terms of runs created per 27 were also from the AL East. Eight of the top fifteen AL pithcers in terms of ERA were also from the AL East. And it's not just Boston, Tampa Bay, and New York. Baltimore and Toronto also had very good hitters (Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Alex Rios) and pitchers (Roy Halladay, Jeremy Guthrie).

League Championship Series Predictions

Well at least I got the American League right... The biggest surprise by far was Arizona beating Chicago. Arizona does have good pitching (114 ERA+) but their hitting is terrible (88 OPS+.) I don't just mean below average either, it was the worst hitting in the NL. They had a .321 OBP as a team in a hitter-friendly park.

So obviously I must pick against Arizona, again. Everyone is billing this as the great offense (Colorado) vs. the great pitching (Arizona.) Colorado's pitching is actually quite good as well. Not as good as Arizona's, but much closer than most people would think. Colorado's pitching was 4th best in the NL (110 ERA+, behind Arizona, Chicago, and San Diego.) Coors Field was once again the most hitter friendly ballpark which lead to the second most runs scored. If you're not an idiot and take into account Coors Field, then their hitting was only 6th best in the NL, but still much better than the Chicago. Whatever, Colorado is Murder's Row when compared to Arizona. Colorado in 5.

Boston and Cleveland both had a little easier time with their opponents than expected, but you had to expect these two teams to be here. They were both very balanced, very good teams. Boston had the third best hitting, Cleveland was tied for fourth. Boston had the best pitching, and Cleveland had the third best pitching. Boston has a clear edge over Cleveland, but this should be a very close series... The Sabathia/Carmona combo looks a lot more intimidating against Boston than it did against New York. However, I had really forgotten just how bad Joe Borowski is until I had to watch him pitch the last two days. Boston's pitching is so good that Borowski will have to notch 2-3 saves for Cleveland to win. I just can't see that happening. Boston in 7.